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Re: Earl

Posted By: xironman
Date: Wednesday, 9-1-10, at 6:32 p.m.

In Response To: Re: Earl (King)

You all be safe down there. Earl is the real deal. From Masters at wunderground
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.

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Messages In This Thread

Earl -- diver -- Tuesday, 8-31-10, at 2:01 p.m.
Re: Earl -- jlmann -- Tuesday, 8-31-10, at 4:05 p.m.
Re: Earl -- diver -- Wednesday, 9-1-10, at 9:21 a.m.
Re: Earl -- J.D.Davis -- Wednesday, 9-1-10, at 1:18 p.m.
Re: Hope Everybody is OK! -- jlmann -- Thursday, 9-2-10, at 7:39 p.m.
Re: Earl -- King -- Wednesday, 9-1-10, at 9:59 a.m.
Re: Earl -- King -- Wednesday, 9-1-10, at 10:18 a.m.
Re: Earl -- tom -- Wednesday, 9-1-10, at 7:38 p.m.
Re: Earl -- King -- Friday, 9-3-10, at 1:22 a.m.
Re: Earl -- tom -- Friday, 9-3-10, at 7:49 a.m.
Re: Earl -- King -- Friday, 9-3-10, at 2:24 p.m.
Re: Earl -- jlmann -- Friday, 9-3-10, at 2:50 p.m.
Re: Earl -- King -- Friday, 9-3-10, at 3:47 p.m.
Re: Earl -- NJ DAVE -- Friday, 9-3-10, at 4:08 p.m.
Re: Earl -- xironman -- Wednesday, 9-1-10, at 6:32 p.m.
Re: Earl -- NJ DAVE -- Thursday, 9-2-10, at 7:56 p.m.

 

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